By JAMES FALLOWS
5th September
2004
How big a deal will Skype turn out to be? I have no idea whether
the company itself, which was founded one year ago, will someday
come to epitomize and dominate a particular booming business,
the way Google, eBay and Amazon now do. But I feel confident that
the service it provides will be attractive to most people who
give it a serious look.
Skype, a made-up term that rhymes
with "tripe," is the most popular and sexiest application
of VoIP, which doesn't rhyme with anything. VoIP - sometimes pronounced
letter by letter, like C.I.A., and at other times as a word -
stands for voice over Internet protocol. Essentially, it is a
way of allowing a computer with a broadband connection to serve
as a telephone.
This new form of conveying voice
messages has so many advantages over traditional systems that
the whole telecommunications industry is scrambling to see how
fast it can shift traffic onto the Internet. AT&T, for example,
is no longer recruiting new home customers, but it is offering
many new VoIP services. Dozens of other companies - new ones like
Vonage and established ones like Verizon - are selling VoIP services,
too.
Skype's distinction is that, for
now at least, it is the easiest, fastest and cheapest way for
individual customers to begin using VoIP. It works this way:
First, you download free software
from skype.com. Skype runs on most major operating systems, including
Windows XP and 2000, Linux, Pocket PC for portable devices and,
as of this summer, Mac OS. On three of the computers on which
I installed it, it ran with no tweaking at all. On the fourth,
I had to change one setting for the sound card, following easy
instructions on the site.
While running, Skype sits in a little
window, like an instant-messenger program, and lets you to talk
with other users in two ways. If the other person has Skype installed,
you can talk as long as you want, free, and with sound quality
that is startlingly better than that of a normal phone connection.
Over the years, I have learned to say "that's 'F' as in Frank"
when spelling my last name on the phone, because normal phone
lines don't carry the frequencies that distinguish "F"
from "S." Listening to a conversation on Skype, by contrast,
is like listening to a radio program over streaming audio. The
sound comes from speakers that are built into most laptop computers
or attached to most desktops.
You'll need a microphone. Most laptops
come with nearly invisible but quite effective tiny microphones
embedded near the keyboard. (It may look odd to be talking to
your laptop while using Skype, but in the cellphone age, we've
all seen worse.) At either a desktop or a laptop computer, you
can use a separate microphone or, less awkwardly, a phone handset
or headset that plugs into a computer port. Skype sells headsets
for $15 and up. I got the cheapest model, which works fine.
You can also reach people who don't
use Skype, through a new service called SkypeOut. This allows
you to dial nearly any cellular or land-line telephone number
in any country and talk. Though it isn't free, it's really cheap.
Skype's prices are in euros - its founders are Scandinavian, the
main programmers are Estonian and its headquarters are in Luxembourg
- and they average two or three American cents a minute, at any
time of day. With a credit card, you buy calling time in units
of 10 euros ($12.18), which are deducted automatically as you
talk.
I started with 10 euros. After my
wife talked to her sister in Italy for a half-hour and I made
one quick call to the Philippines and five more within the United
States, we still had 9.10 euros left.
Another time, I spoke from Washington
simultaneously with my son in San Francisco and his business partner
who was visiting Bangalore, India. (Up to five parties can participate
in a Skype conference call.) All of us were at computers running
Skype, so the conversation was free. The sound quality was sharp;
it was about like speaking in person, and the connection had none
of the satellite-bounce delay of normal transoceanic phone calls.
Skype also allows file transfers and instant text messages during
these computer-to-computer sessions.
There is one huge drawback: Skype
works best from a fully connected computer, which runs counter
to the whole trend of ever more mobile communication. At the end
of Skype's first year in business, I spoke with its co-founder,
Niklas Zennstrom - via SkypeOut, on his cellphone in London -
about his ambitions for the second year. High on his list were
partnerships with manufacturers of cellphones and personal digital
assistants, to build in compatibility with Skype. The company
will also sustain its push to sign up new users. Skype says it
has about 10 million users in 212 countries, with an average of
more than 600,000 logged on at any given time.
SKYPE illustrates network economics
in the purest form: free connections within the network become
more valuable to each user as more users sign up. Because of the
system's peer-to-peer design, loosely related to the Kazaa file-sharing
program that Mr. Zennstrom and Skype's other co-founder, Janus
Friis, invented four years ago, the system scales well - that
is, it doesn't bog down as more users join. The peer-to-peer design
also allows it to work behind most Internet firewalls.
Skype's own economics, including
its promise that it will never impose a charge for Skype-to-Skype
connections, depend on maintaining its rock-bottom cost structure
and slowly adding revenue, through services like SkypeOut and
future voice-mail and video-call services. The drive to hold down
costs is also what originally took Mr. Zennstrom, a Swede, and
Mr. Friis, a Dane, to Estonia. As Mr. Zennstrom sees it, during
the "bubble years" in Sweden, programmers lost some
of the hungriness and hustle he could still find in the Baltics.
The risks make it hard to predict
the company's future. The world's existing telecom companies,
battered for more than a decade by technical, regulatory and marketing
changes, will presumably want to answer this latest challenge.
Mr. Zennstrom says the telecoms should view Skype as healthily
"disruptive technology" and respond by reinventing their
business - as I.B.M. has done since the rise of the personal computer
- instead of pouting their way into decline.
From the individual user's point
of view, there are also questions about whether this new form
of instant access could become as oppressively intrusive as e-mail
often seems. But at this moment, it's hard to resist.
James Fallows is a national correspondent for TheAtlantic Monthly.
E-mail: tfiles@nytimes.com.
